the winner of all that's important

(note: my new blog at gregoryharbin.com is now up and running. This will slowly transition to a more personal page, with gh.c being for my articles)

I put together my first electoral map, based on survey data from SurveyUSA which was released yesterday. Rather than assigning delegates in the states that were close, I went ahead and designated a 'swing state' those which have undecided numbers that would put one or the other candidate over the top. With this metric, I have Florida, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, and Virginia as purples. After assigning the rest, I have Obama with 267 electoral votes, McCain with 139.

I expect Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina to be Obama's main focuses, as they have very close margins, and any of the states would tip the electoral scales over the magic 270 number. McCain has a much harder battle, needing to win every single swing state to win.

There are of course unforeseen irregularities that could change this map, and I'm sure I'll have to redraw it many times before November, but as of now, this is how it looks.

I really should have been posting about Idol before now, but, here goes.

I was happy to see Luke sent home. He's good looking, but his style of singing just wasn't clicking with me. I was less happy to see Kady go. She's obviously the 'prettiest' of the bunch, and she had an okay voice, but I do agree with Simon that she was a robot. With a lot of work, she could be a star.

Asia'h, I hated her version of whatever that was that she did. She's cute, and will do well on the Disney Channel, but she wasn't going to win Idol. Danny I was okay with. The guy was starting to grow on me, and I wanted to keep watching whatever is happening with him and Ramiele. I would have sent Chikezie home to be sure.

Who do I like?

On the guy's side, Michael Johns is by far my favorite. He's got that brilliant star quality. He'll be famous with or without a win, but he's in the top 5 for sure. I also like David Cook, and do I really need to say, of course I like Archie. Who doesn't?

My pick on the girls' side is Kristy Lee Cook (I'm assuming no relation to David). Ooh, she's sooo cute. And her singing is out of this world. Her country Journey was awesome. And looking like Keri Russell never hurt anyone. I'm kind of disappointed by the girls this year, but out of who's left, I like Brooke (last week's was better than this week's, but she's still good), and Syesha Mercado.

My bottom-dwellers are Chikezie, Amanda, Ramiele, and David Hernandez. I expect Rami or Chikezie to go home next week.

OK, the press is reporting 'Hillary's Big Three Wins.' Let's be clear here. Hillary netted exactly four delegates. Four. That's four (4). That's fewer than Obama netted in ANY of the previous eleven contests, save the Virgin Islands, which had but three (3) delegates to give him.

Four delegates, people.

Also, she did not, let me repeat, Hillary Clinton did NOT win Texas. She barely edged him out in the primary, but lost by a large margin in the caucus. In the end, he's getting 99 (ninety-nine) delegates to her 94 (ninety-four). That's a net gain of five (5) for Obama. Again, bigger than her net at the end of her supposed big day.

She won exactly two states yesterday, both obvious Clinton strongholds, which she was winning by much higher margins only two weeks ago.

Out of the upcoming twelve (12) contests, she's going to win exactly maybe two. 2. PA and West Virginia. Maybe.

It is over, Hillary Clinton Campaign. You made a good show of it, and I'm sure you'll be a fine Senator once you stop running for President (although I'm not sure you know how to do that). Please, go back to New York, and help President Obama get his legislation through.

Lest anyone doubt that I know something of what I'm talking about, I'll post my delegate projections again, this time with the new totals added in. After the 14 (fourteen) contests that that occurred since I started that list, I am now off by 11 delegates each way. To quote the great Emperor Palpatine, "Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen."

Much happier with this version of 'Falling Slowly.' Still nowhere near perfect, but I'm happier. Comments appreciated.

http://www.gregoryharbin.com/FallingSlowly.mp3

And for the record, no, I will not be attending a Primary Results Baratch Obamarty tomorrow, no matter how fun that sounds. I will be glued to my TV, however, and eagerly awaiting Hillary's (surely she must!) concession speech.

Inspired by JoCo mentioning on Twit that he's recorded everything on a Mac Mini, I sprung into recording action today, choosing for my attempting Glen Hansard and Markéta Irglová's glorious, Oscar-winning 'Falling Slowly.'

My version falls short of theirs on every level, but at least I finally recorded a song with guitar, voice, bass, and piano. Much more an experiment than something meant for enjoyment, I put this online mainly for criticism and posterity.

Falling Slowly (lyrics and music by Glen Hansard and Markéta Irglová, instruments and voice by Gregory Harbin/Johannes)

Selected songs from Radiohead's 1997 masterwork "OK Computer," examined as an allegory for the 2008 American Presidential election:

Airbag:

The "next World War" is our current War on Terrorism, and the unpopularity of the Iraq Invasion has led America to look for a 'jack knifed juggernaut,' a leader who stood up against the war even before it was unpopular. And so, "in an interstellar burst," Barack Obama is here to save the Universe--or at least America.

In the deep, political ignorant sleep of the innocent--college students--Barack Obama is born again. Riding a fast bandwagon to success, he's amazed that he's still alive: an inexperienced minority senator running for the most powerful job in the world.

Paranoid Android:

"Please could you stop the noise," Hillary Clinton is "trying to get some rest." All these unborn chicken voices--"Yes We Can"--keep ringing in her head. When she is President, everyone who's opposed her will go "against the wall." Republican opposers of her Universal Heath Care plan, their opinions "are of no consequence at all."

"You don't remember--you don't remember--why don't you remember my name?" asks Hillary, unable to comprehend why name recognition isn't giving her more success--she screams at the DNC "off with his head!"--until she realizes that Barack has been able to turn her record against her: "I guess he does."

Now, Hillary needs anti-Barack sentiment to "rain down, rain down" in a steady stream. It won't come from the grassroots, but from her position of power, she believes she can force it to come "from a great height, from a great height."

"That's it," Barack. "You're leaving." American values--"the crackle of pig skins", soccer moms networking about Barack's supposed Muslim heritage, the panic, and the vomit--who will be there at 3 AM to pick up the phone at the White House? In desperation, Hillary cries out, "God loves his children!"

Karma Police:

High on 80% approval ratings after 9/11, George Bush commands the Karma/Anti-Terror Police: "Arrest this man" for picking up a copy of "The Anarchist's Cookbook" at a local library. "He buzzes like a fridge, he's like a detuned radio." He just LOOKS like a terrorist, throw him in Gitmo. And who's that with him? She looks like a terrorist--"her Hitler hairdo, it's making me feel ill." It looks like we've crashed an entire terrorist party. "This is what you get when you mess with me"--you're either with us or you're against us.

Four years later, he's "given all I can," but "it's not enough." His approval ratings in the low twenties, Bush is worn out. "I've given all I can," but until 2009, he's "still on the payroll." Worried about his legacy, he stays the course. "This is what you get when you mess with us!" he screams. Fighting to control his press, he travels to Africa, where he has arguably done a lot of good. A stunned populace wonders when he had time to fix Africa, but Bush just smiles in relief. "Phew, for a minute there, I lost myself."

Electioneering:

John McCain will "stop at nothing" to become President. Seemingly unable to appeal to both Moderates and Conservatives, McCain has begun electioneering. He says "the right things," and hopes he can "rely on your vote." In an impassioned plea, he promises to "go forwards," if his supporters will only "go backwards," and somewhere, in a mystical equilibrium that would secure 50.1% of the vote, "we will meet."

"Riot shields, voodoo economics," all the policies of McCain's past, you need just ignore all that. It's history. He's against abortion! "I trust I can rely on your vote." He supported the surge! "I trust I can rely on your vote." He's a war hero! "I trust I can rely on your vote."

I have now seen most of the films nominated in this year's Oscars (yes, even you, Atonement; Atonement, how you thrill in the first fifty minutes, and then fall into almost complete squalor for the rest of the running time, Atonement, whom I hope the novel, whose beginning is almost more utterly rapturous, does not fall apart as well upon entering her second epoch), and therefore feel somewhat strong in my expertise on the subject, and as well rather confident in my ability to prognosticate.

After some thought, I decided to rank the Best Picture nominees thusly, ignoring the Oscars, and only looking into my soul for her desires:

5. Juno
4. Atonement
3. Michael Clayton
2. No Country For Old Men
1. There Will Be Blood

The predominant theory of Academy voting is that the word 'Best' should most properly be replaced by 'Most': Most Acting, Most Cinematography, Most Writing.

By this measure, then There Will Be Blood should win for Most Directing, and Le Scaphandre et le Papillon for Most Cinematography.

Day-Lewis is an obvious lock for Most Acting by a Male--even reading the 'if I say I am an oil man, you'll have to agree' speech in the novel 'Oil!' brings chills to my spine), although why Mathieu Amalric is not nominated, I don't know. Does the Academy think that acting can't be done by the voice? Johnny Depp was really better than that glorious portrayal?

Casey Affleck is a lock for Most Acting in a Supporting Role, as amazed as I am to hear those words typed onto the page.

I can't decide about Best Actress. Ellen Page wins for Most Acting in a Film Anyone Has Ever Freaking Heard Of. Blanchett wins for Best Job Recreating A Role You Already Won An Oscar For, Too Bad the Film Sucked. Marion Cotillard is the dark horse, and in veritas, I hope she gets it.

Saoirse Ronan is a lock, a lock I say, for Best Supporting. She was by far the best part of Atonement.

I cannot see Blood not sweeping Directing, Art, Editing, Adapted, and Picture.

I'm still annoyed that my boy Greenwood from Radiohead is being denied his Best Score Oscar because he quoted from Brahms. Oscar rules are mistaken here. Score is therefore a real toss-up. I hated Atonement's score, but it's the sort of thing that will win awards.

Original Screenplay, I believe, with go to Michael Clayton. Give Tony Gilroy an Oscar so he'll stick to this sort of film. He doesn't need to waste his talent on endless Bourne films.

Um, so a sort of list?

Best Picture
* There Will Be Blood

Best Animated Feature
* Ratatouille

Best Documentary Feature
* Sicko

Best Actor
* Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Best Actress
* Ellen Page - Juno

Best Supporting Actor
* Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

Best Supporting Actress
* Saoirse Ronan - Atonement

Best Director
* Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood

Best Cinematography
* Janusz Kaminski - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Best Art Direction
* Jack Fisk and Jim Erickson - There Will Be Blood

Best Costume Design
* Marit Allen - La Vie en Rose

Best Film Editing
* Dylan Tichenor - There Will Be Blood

Best Makeup
* Ve Neill and Martin Samuel - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

Best Original Score
* Dario Marianelli - Atonement

Best Original Song
* Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova - "Falling Slowly" from Once

Best Original Screenplay
* Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy

Best Adapted Screenplay
* There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson, from Oil!, novel by Upton Sinclair

Am I now a member of a more august class, a higher order of supporters? I feel the odd need to subdivide myself into a smaller group. "Bearded White Guys For Obama," perhaps.

Three things:

1. I have Radiohead tickets!

2. I heart heart heart Questionable Content!

3. Michael Jackson's 'Thriller' is absolutely fantastic.

Some notes from tonight's primaries in Virginia, Maryland, and the Federal City:

• Obama is now winning by ten more delegates than I had predicted in my post-Super Tuesday prediction.


• He increased his lead over Clinton 54 delegates, a blow out by any standards.


• He is now (not including super delegates) 883 delegates away from the nomination.


• He would need to win 92% of the upcoming delegates to win without the use of super delegates. Including the super delegates already endorsing him, he would need to win 70% of upcoming delegates to reach the magic number of 2,025.


• Obama has won 53% of the delegates overall, and 66% since Super Tuesday. According to my predictions, which have been low, he will take 57% of the upcoming delegates.


• But assuming he takes half of the super delegates, as would be expected in a close race, he needs win only 47% of the upcoming delegates.


• Clinton, meanwhile, has won only 47% of the delegates so far, and only 34% since Super Tuesday. Note that she won only almost half of the pledged delegates on Super Tuesday, which she trumpeted as a win.


• Clinton would need to stop her slide, and even reverse it, to achieve 76% of upcoming delegates assuming her current super delegate count holds steady, or 60%, assuming she wins the support of half the super delegates.


• Did you understand all that? Then I promise you you are now more informed that most of the people on network television.

Things for Obama are going even better than I expected tonight. This, combined with recent polls showing a landslide victory against McCain, are getting be very excited. This is Kennedy vs. Nixon. This is Reagan vs. Carter.

Here's my projections for the upcoming primaries. Obviously my numbers for tonight are a little off, but I think I'm fairly faithful to the truth. Feel free to watch this list like a hawk during upcoming elections and point out any glaring mistakes I may have made.

I want you to remember this day. I especially want you to remember this day in four years. Remember that February 7, 2008, was the day Willard Mitt Romney threw the Presidential election to Barack Obama.

This is not what he will say, of course. Mitt's spin is this: by dropping out of the race, he has unified the Republican Party. Who he has unified them behind does not matter, because the anti-Hillary vitriol will be so great that any unified opposition will defeat her in November.

This is fallacious on so many levels that I barely know where to begin. By surrendering the GOP nomination to John McCain, Romney is forcing the traditionally conservative party to be led by a liberal. John McCain has a history of supporting conservative policies when it is convenient (or he bets correctly, as with the surge), but backing, even creating liberal policies when it is convenient. McCain-Fiengold, McCain-Leiberman, McCain-Kennedy, and many more, are all solidly liberal ideas that he supports. He has no principles, no philosophy on which he bases his actions, only a weird sense of what will keep up his maverick image, and a disturbing view towards foreign policy.

A McCain-led Republican party is not a conservative party, it is a slipshod, motley arrangement of anti-Clinton 'Republicans' and a few independents. Nowhere will the conservative principles that form the basis of our country be given quarter, but only shut away. The GOP party becomes the WAR party.

Greater even than this is the reality that Hillary Clinton is not the opponent. Barack Obama has shown clearly that he will win the Democratic nomination. He has shown that he will lead the country. Next to this emblem of change, John McCain will look angry, petty, and stuck in backwards thinking.

Understand that I am of two minds here. While I believe strongly in conservative principles, I can, and will, support the Presidential nominee whom I feel will execute the office best. Barack Obama may believe in universal health care, which will cost billions, but John McCain believes in invading any country that vaguely threatens us, at the cost of trillions, and thousands of lives. Barack Obama may believe in amnesty for illegal aliens, but John McCain refuses to say what he believes for fear of losing votes. Barack Obama stands on a bedrock of principle, whereas John McCain stands on a sandy island of shifting 'voter opinion sand.'

And I'm not alone here. Many conservatives would rather see the country run by a solid liberal than a liberal in sheep's clothing. Many conservatives will stay home in November.

Mitt Romney just handed Barack Obama the South. Mitt Romney just handed Barack Obama the Midwest. Barack Obama already had the west coast and the east coast. Barack Obama will win in a landslide election the likes of which the country has not seen since Reagan.

And this is because the country wants liberalism. We can tell the country wants liberalism, because the two candidates who will be running in November are both liberals. The question is, do you want smart-alecky, condescending, flip-flopping, morose liberal John McCain, or strong, principled, articulate liberal Barack Obama? I think the choice, such as it is, is clear.

So why, you're asking, is Mitt dropping out? I'll tell you.

In 2012, liberalism will be ruling America. President Barack Obama will have led Democratic candidates to victory in 2008 and 2010, he will have nominated liberal judges to the Supreme Court, we will have Universal Health Care, and some of your taxes may be higher. The United States will be that many steps closer to socialism.

And this is where Mitt Romney will step in. Mitt Romney, who valiantly sacrificed his campaign for the good of the party. Mitt Romney, who brought unity to conservatism. John McCain couldn't lead the party to victory against the liberals, he'll say, because John McCain wasn't a true conservative. Now, CONSERVATIVE MITT ROMNEY is the answer conservative America needs to combat the horrors of socialism!

Which is why, my friends, I want you to remember this day. Because Mitt Romney knows exactly what he's doing. He knows conservatism isn't strong enough right now to elect him, so he thinks by bowing out early, taking a hit for the team, he'll emerge as the front-runner for the GOP nomination in four years.

Don't. Be. Fooled.

Conservative America: find a true conservative to run in 2012. Mitt Romney is a creature of manipulation. He could have stayed in the race until the end. He could have run a cleaner campaign. He could have stood for conservative principles all his life, but instead he ran a mediocre, negative campaign and then threw the election.

But me, I'm hoping Barack Obama shows all the cynics wrong. I think whole-heartedly that a liberal--not the ugly Democratism of the Clintons, or the ineffectual Moderatism of Carter--a principled liberal will lead this nation to its next tableau. I could be wrong. But if I am, I need a solid conservative, not a liberal Republocrat, and not a conservative-for-show, to vote for in four years.

Oh my goodness I am such an election geek.

I promise you I have projected election results for the 26 upcoming primaries and caucuses so that I can see where Obama stands.

By my count, he takes the nomination with 2,209 delegates against Clinton's 1840. And this is assuming current numbers around the country, not taking into account the constant upward momentum of the campaign.

Something interesting to note: Today, Billary donated to its campaign $5 million dollars, because she is quickly running out of money. In response, the Obama campaign has asked for donations from his supporters to match it, and have already (as of this typing, and it's going up) taken in $4.67 million. Meanwhile, Hillary's camp is sending out e-mails asking supporters to help them reach a 'big goal': $3 million in 3 days. I doubt they'll even make that.

As excited as I am about this election itself, I'm almost more excited about the real life drama unfolding every day.

School? It's going great! Work? José's been sick, so I've been working in the kitchen, which has been a ton of fun. I do hope he gets better soon.

Chris Hitchens successfully deconstructs the racist tactics of Billary:

Fool Me Thrice:
It should be no surprise that the Clintons are playing the race card.

Please pass this along, and ask your friends, Republicans or Democrats, if this is the sort of filth we really want in the highest public office of the land.

Oh, and the new Hayden sounds like Wilco.

New music, good new music appears! Get this stuff:

Times New Viking: Rip It Off

The Magnetic Fields: Distortion

Cat Power: Jukebox

Hayden: In Field & Town

Okay, so let's look at where I was right:

1. Small, easily portable Mac computer. The screen is four inches larger than I said, although I was almost exactly spot-on to the thickness. It's not the device I was looking for, but it's one iteration off. I'm still expecting/hoping for the PaperMac at next MacWorld.

2. Multi-touch. It appears that the multi-touch is too expensive to include in such a large screen, so they worked it into the touchpad. Once again, almost what I predicted, but one version off.

3. Solid-state drive. A bigger drive than I expected (64 rather than 16/32) is an option in the more expensive machine, but the idea is still there. A smaller, solid-state drive is preferable to a large spindle-based.

4. No optical drive. Portable devices don't need optical drives most of the time, and I love their 'use a nearby optical drive' feature.

As for the FamilyMac:

They dropped the price of the AppleTV, and increased the 'I'm a computer' functionality of the device, and will soon be introducing a 'rent HD movies' feature. I still think that building the hardware into the screen is a good idea, but Apple may be waiting for HDTV technology to settle down before selling them. The new 'Time Capsule' has a lot of the same features as my FamilyMac. Again, next year...

All in all, a disappointing MacWorld keynote, but the new laptop is cool, and might be something I'd consider getting.

A customer gave me a CD: Kismet, by Jesca Hoop. It is SO GOOD. Check it OUT.

Last night was the Terminator series premiere. I saw the pilot a while ago with unfinished effects... it was good, but from what I hear, what aired last night was even better. I'd check it out, especially with the (quickly dying) Strike limiting TV choices.

I just want to remind everyone of my alarmingly specific MacWorld 2008 prediction post from almost a month ago. I'm actually standing closely beside both predictions. Helping my confidence is a recent article in Wired that mentions that Apple had worked for a year to develop the multi-touch screen for use in a 'tablet PC.' With two more years of work and a brand new operating system, surely Apple engineers have gotten a device on par with mine up and running.

Also helping my confidence is tonight's MacBreak Weekly in which panelists admit that something will be 'coming out of left field' and 'probably an AppleTV 2.' While no one takes the (logical?) next step that I do, the writing is on the wall.

One caveat for my own sake: if Steve doesn't announce my products tomorrow, I won't admit I'm wrong until he fails to announce them next year, and we see that the product line is going down a different line. I am not responsible for Jobs' engineers' inability to put a product out on time.

All Shins fans, read this: http://elysesewell.livejournal.com/73490.html.

SYNOPSIS:

Consoles explode, killing crew members.

FULL PRODUCT VERSION:

Intrepid class

FULL STARSHIP VERSION:

USS Voyager NCC-74656

A DESCRIPTION OF THE PROBLEM:

When in any battle, exploratory mission, or leisurely jaunt, the consoles at which crew members work are prone to heat up, smoke, then shatter and explode with a force that is known to kill crew members.

STEPS TO REPRODUCE:

1. leave spacedock
2. press button on console

EXPECTED BEHAVIOR:

Console responds.

ACTUAL BEHAVIOR:

Console explodes.

REPRODUCIBILITY:

I wouldn't try.

Top Ten Films of 2007:

1. Charlie Wilson's War

Great script, great acting, phenomenal ending. See this film.

2. Gone Baby Gone

Ben Affleck proves he's not an idiot. And Casey acts his heart out. Not a bad story either.

3. Zodiac

Three words: Robert Downey Jr. This man continues to star in quality films, and this is no exception. From the guy who made Fight Club.

4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

I know, I know, you hated it. Still, it was fantastic.

5. No Country For Old Men

This film is going to be swimming in awards come awards time. Disturbing but wonderful.

6. Michael Clayton

Underrated, an instant classic. I can't wait to see what Gilroy does next.

7. The Bourne Ultimatum

A brilliant conclusion to a brilliant series. Matt Damon continues to impress.

8. Sweeney Todd

Burton and Depp at the top of their game. And a bit of Sondheim never hurt anyone.

9. 3:10 to Yuma

I finally found a film I like Crowe in. If only all Westerns were this good.

10. Knocked Up

She wears my robot pants! Seriously, though, aside from that, really good flick. Judd Apatow doesn't always hit, but he did here.